FOUR WAYS THE WAR IN UKRAINE COULD END
FOUR WAYS THE WAR IN UKRAINE COULD END
Some of the possibilities are frightening
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It's been two years since Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, and the war is no closer to ending today than it was in the weeks after Russian troops and equipment began pouring into Ukraine.
The last two years have been hard for Ukraine
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The last two years have bore witness to fighting at a scale the world has not seen since the World Wars, as well as thousands of war crimes, dead civilians, and destroyed lives. How the war will end is still unknown.
Assistance from allies is crucial for Kyiv
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Ukraine is currently dependent on security and financial aid from the United States and its allies across the world. However, without help, it is likely that Kyiv won't be able to hold off Russia's coming offensives in 2024.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies
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Business Insider explored four ways in which the Russian invasion of Ukraine could be brought to an end based on a February 14th press briefing from experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Let's look at the possibilitiesThe Center for Strategic and International Studies
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Business Insider explored four ways in which the Russian invasion of Ukraine could be brought to an end based on a February 14th press briefing from experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Let's look at the possibilities
1. Ukraine holds out and Russia gives up
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Ukraine holding out is the scenario that most Western officials are hoping for and if the country can draw Russia into a long war that Moscow eventually loses. But such a scenario would be dependent on help.
Assistance from allies is crucial for Kyiv
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Ukraine is currently dependent on security and financial aid from the United States and its allies across the world. However, without help, it is likely that Kyiv won't be able to hold off Russia's coming offensives in 2024. 6
Western aid can help Ukraine hold out
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Max Bergmann of CSIS believes that if Ukraine continues to receive security and financial help from its partners, like the US $60 billion dollar package currently working its way through Congress, then Ukraine can hold out.
Optimistic about holding out through to 2025
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"If that funding is passed, I have no doubt that Ukraine will be able to completely absorb the Russian offensive that is going on in 2024," Bergmann said during a February 14th briefing. "In fact, I would be quite optimistic about Ukraine's potential in 2025."
2. Russian wins and defeats Ukraine
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A Russian victory is most likely what will happen if Ukraine's partners and allies are not willing to continue backing the country up financially and militarily. Anything is possible in a war of attrition according to Eliot A. Cohen.
A war of attrition favors Moscow not Kyiv
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"In a war of attrition, lines can break if the attrited side is depleted enough. So I think that passing the assistance is really critical," Cohen explained But he also explained how a lack of help could lead to Russia's victory.
 Comparing Ukraine's conflict to World War I
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Cohen used World War I as an analogy to help his audience understand how quickly a state at war can collapse when fighting an attritional war. "Nobody expected the war to end in November 1918," Cohen explained.
Germany didn't see its collapse coming
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"In September, even into early October, people [were] planning for the campaigns of 1919. And there was not just one collapse, but a set of collapses. I think something similar might happen in this case," Cohen added.
3. Ukraine and Russia could make peace
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A peace deal is a hopeful possibility but it's one that isn't likely to happen unless Russia or Ukraine relaxes their demands. In November 2023, Ukraine put out a 10-point peace plan that included conditions Russia would not accept.
Ukraine's proposed peace plan isn't possible
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For example, the Kyiv Post noted the peace plan's fifth point included a reversion to Ukraine's 1991 borders, a commitment Russia isn't likely to adhere to unless it outright lost the war. Point seven also outlines war crimes tribunals to prosecute Russian war crimes.
Putin has vowed that he will achieve his goals
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In December 2023, Putin vowed at an end of year press conference there would be no peace until the "denazification" and demilitarization of Ukraine was secured. Kyiv would also need to be a neutral country according to The Hill's Reporting.
4. It could end in nuclear war
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The final way the conflict in Ukraine could end is nuclear war. Officials in Russia like Putin and Dmitry Medvedev have made several nuclear threats ever since the conflict began, and it is a possibility that needs to be considered.
What happens to Putin if he goes nuclear?
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"What would that spell for Vladimir Putin's regime? I think the US has already communicated pretty forcefully that all bets are off if Russia were to use nuclear weapons," CSIS Senior Vice President Seth Jones explained.
Kris ~ Dreamweaver
www.poetrypoem.com/dreamweaver
24th February 2024.
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